Archivos de la categoría ‘Economía mundial’

!!!WALLERSTEIN,Immanuel

Image via Wikipedia

End of the Recession? Who’s Kidding Whom? | Immanuel Wallerstein.

 

End of the Recession? Who’s Kidding Whom?

Commentary No. 296, Jan. 1, 2011

The media are telling us that the economic “crisis” is over, and that the world-economy is once more back to its normal mode of growth and profit. On December 30, Le Monde summed up this mood in one of its usual brilliant headlines: “The United States wants to believe in an economic upturn.” Exactly, they “want to believe” it, and not only people in the United States. But is it so?

First of all, as I have been saying repeatedly, we are not in a recession but in a depression. Most economists tend to have formal definitions of these terms, based primarily on rising prices in stock markets. They use these criteria to demonstrate growth and profit. And politicians in power are happy to exploit this nonsense. But neither growth nor profit is the appropriate measures.

There are always some people who are making profit, even in the worst of times. The question is how many people, and which people? In “good” times, most people are seeing an improvement in their material situation, even if there are considerable differences between those at the top and bottom of the economic ladder. A rising tide raises all ships, as the saying goes, or at least most ships.

But when the world-economy becomes stagnant, as the world-economy has been since the 1970s, several things happen. The numbers of people who are not gainfully employed and therefore receiving an income that is minimally adequate goes up considerably. And because this is so, countries try to export unemployment to each other. In addition, politicians tend to try to deprive the elderly retired persons and the young, pre-working-age persons of income in order to appease their voters in the usual working-age categories.

That is why, appraising the situation country by country, there are always some in which the situation looks much better than in most others. But which countries look better tends to shift with some rapidity, as it has been doing for the last forty years.

Furthermore, as the stagnation continues, the negative picture grows larger, which is when the media begin to talk of “crisis” and politicians look for quick fixes. They call for “austerity,” which means cutting pensions and education and child care even further. They deflate their currencies, if they can, in order that they reduce momentarily their unemployment rates at the expense of some other country’s employment rates.

Take the problem of government pensions. A small town in Alabama exhausted its pension fund in 2009. It declared bankruptcy and ceased paying its pensions, thereby violating state law which required it to do so. As the New York Times remarked, “It is not just the pensioners who suffer when a pension fund runs dry. If a city tried to follow the law and pay its pensioners with money from its annual operating budget, it would probably have to adopt large tax increases, or make huge service cuts, to come up with the money. Current city workers could find themselves paying into a pension plan that will not be there for their own retirements.”

But this is the looming problem for every state within the United States who, by law, must have balanced budgets, which means they cannot resort to borrowing to meet current budgetary needs. And there is a parallel problem for every nation within the euro zone who cannot deflate their currencies in order to meet their budgetary needs, which has meant that their ability to borrow leads to exorbitant unsustainable costs.

But what, you may ask, about those countries where the economy is said to be “booming” such as Germany and most particularly, within Germany, Bavaria – called by some “the planet of the happy.” Why then do Bavarians “feel a malaise” and seem “subdued and uncertain about their economic health”? The New York Times notes that “Germany’s good fortune…is widely viewed (in Bavaria) as having come at the expense of workers, who for the past decade have sacrificed wages and benefits to make their employers more competitive….In fact, part of the prosperity comes from people not getting the social security they should have.”

Well then, at least, there is the good example of the “emerging economies” which have been showing sustained growth during the last few years – especially the so-called BRIC countries. Look again. The Chinese government is very concerned about the loose lending practices of Chinese banks, which seem to be a bubble, and leading to the threat of inflation. One result is the sharp increase in layoffs in a country where the safety net for the unemployed seems to have disappeared. Meanwhile, the new president of Brazil, Dilma Rousseff, is said to be disturbed by the “overvalued” Brazilian currency amidst what she sees as the deflating U.S. and Chinese currencies that, together, are threatening the ability of Brazilian exports to be competitive. And the governments of Russia, India, and South Africa are all facing rumbling discontent from large parts of their populations who seemed to have escaped the benefits of presumed economic growth.

Finally, and not least, there are the sharp rises in the prices of energy, food, and water. This is the result of a combination of world population growth and increased percentages of people demanding access. This portends a struggle for these basic goods, a struggle that could turn deadly. There are two possible outcomes. One is that large numbers of people will reduce the level of their demand – most unlikely. The second is that the deadliness of the struggle results in a reduced world population and thereby fewer shortages – a most unpleasant Malthusian solution.

As we enter this second decade of the twenty-first century, it seems improbable that by 2020 we shall look back on this decade as one in which the “crisis” was relegated to a historical memory. It is not very helpful to “wish to believe” in a prospect that seems remote. It does not help in trying to figure out what we should do about it.

Anuncios

La economía mundial en 2011: perspectivas turbulentas… « CIENCIAS SOCIALES HOY – Weblog.

Está es una de las amenazas que veo para el 2011. Si se consolida un movimiento tendiente a lograr una baja importante del gasto público a nivel mundial, ahí estará el principio de una nueva Recesión Mundial.

vía There Will Be Blood – NYTimes.com.

Para el año que viene tengo muchas metas que cumplir, esperemos que comience mejor de lo que termina el 2010, ya veremos.

En término de la economía Latinoamérica, creo que los temas del 2011 serán:

  • Evolución de los precios de los bienes primarios (metales y alimentos -conocidos como commoditties-). Esto es lo que está bancando el crecimiento de la región si esto se revierte por alguna cuestión, estaríamos en el peor de los escenarios. Un artículo que me falto poner es sobre la coordinación no deseada del estancamiento mundial, lo que Keynes llamó la paradoja del ahorro. Es decir, si todos los países del mundo tratan de generar un superávit fiscal y gastan menos, pensando que  de  esta forma disminuirá la demanda y se podrá acomodar los precios; sin embargo el único resultado que obtendrán será un incremento del déficit, es simple: si los ingresos de los gobiernos están atados al PBI y este disminuye por que baja la demanda mundial, habrá menos recaudación de impuestos, por lo tanto a pesar de la baja en el gasto no se genera un superávit. No hay evidencias contundentes que ello pueda ocurrir, pero el caso de los países del norte europeo (con Alemania a la cabeza) ya piensan ajustar, lo mismo Estados Unidos y ahora China ajusto hacia arriba la tasa de interés, entonces si bien es cierto que no hay evidencias sustanciales, pero puede ocurrir.

Además el precio de los commodities tiene su base en los mercados financieros, así que habrá que ver cómo    evolucionan estos.

  • La evolución de los tipos de cambios. Acá dejo este interesante artículo de la OECD que es revelador sobre las intenciones que tienen los países del G10: BRIEFING ON EXCHANGE RATE DEVELOPMENTS. Es interesante recordar que en los años 80 se coordinaron intervenciones en los mercados mundiales entre Estados Unidos, Alemania y Japón, para llevar el valor de las monedas al nivel que se pensaba era correcto. El problema de los años 10 del s. XXI es … CHINA!!!! Y unos cuantos pasos más atrás los países del BRI, y son un problema dado que China no quiere cooperar. Veremos cómo se desarrolla este tema.
  • De los dos anteriores se derivaran las posibilidades de crecimiento para los países de América del Sur. En el caso de México, depende más de lo que pase con Estados Unidos.
  • Particularmente en Argentina deberemos ver cómo se desarrolla la interacción entre los precios, el tipo de cambio y la tasa de interés. Este es un año de elecciones presidenciales y se viene movido.
  • México, está pasando por un momento muy difícil y complicado por el tema del narco. También es un año de elecciones, se eligen gobernador en el principal Estado del país: Estado México. Veremos cómo sale parado el PRI, esto será importante para las del 2012.
  • Brasil, con la asunción de Dilma, pareciera que tendrá un año más tranquilo.
  • Bolivia, termina el año 2010 a los trancazos, pero esperemos que todo se solucione.

Mi deseo es que todos los países del continente mejoren su situación social y económica. Principalmente que mejore la distribución del ingreso y que no haya ni un asesinato o preso político.

 

Diganle adiós a la corona estona y demosle la bienvenida al € en el país norteño.

Cuando me acorde del hecho que Estonia entrará en la zona del euro el próximo 1 de enero, pensé pobres estonios, por lo menos les quedan un par de días para arrepentirse. Recordemos los problemas que están enfrentando Grecia, Irlanda, Portugal, España e Italia para estabilizar sus economías. Si bien el problema de origen no es el tipo de cambio fijo, el euro si es un problema para salir de la crisis económica que enfrentan esos países.

Sin embargo, los estonios no se arrepintieron y empezarán a pagar con esos billetes asimétricos sus deudas. (ver aquí, aquí también).

Cuando leí el artículo del NYT me llamó la atención esta frase:

“There is no reason to be afraid,” said Peep Aaviksoo a consultant and former chief executive of EMT, an Estonian mobile phone company.

Cuando hablan así, siempre hay que preocuparse. A pesar de ello, creo que Estonia tiene todas las de ganar, porque a pesar de la reciente apreciación del euro, si las turbulencias siguen (supongamos que Irlanda no puede pagar su deuda) el peor de los escenarios es un devaluación fuerte del euro, lo que implicaría que se abaratarían los bienes producidos en estonia en relación a los bienes mundiales, llevando a un incremento de sus exportaciones. Por eso en el corto plazo Estonia no se arrepentirá de pertenecer a Europa y dejar atrás a Rusia.

Acá un mapa con los otros miembros del club.

Es un punto de vista interesante.

When Dickens wrote the Christmas Carol, Britain’s Parliament was dominated by faction that believed in an economic philosophy we now describe as “trickle down economics.” As far as I’ve been able to discern, the mid-1800s is the first time this economic philosophy was put into effect, more than a century before it was tried again during the Reagan administration. It failed Britain’s working class as well as the many thousands of Irish who perishe … Read More

via Epiphanyblog

Primero veamos la siguiente gráfica, que por si sola dice muchísimo:

si haces click sobre la imagen se verá mucho mejor 🙂

(más…)